I think Hugo Chavez is slowly coming to the realization that he should have spent more time working on his own population than on world opinion over the past few months. Hobnobbing with Ahmadinejad, Putin, the Castro brothers, probably played well in the anti-US international press, but it did nothing to advance his goals as the Supreme Leader of South America.

His missteps in “maleta-gate” and pushing the Spanish King to tell him to shut up did nothing to endear him to his people. The Miami Herald (h/t PAXALLES) reported the other day that he even threatened to imprison a Venezuelan cardinal;

Chávez threatened reprisals — and even prison — against Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino as church officials publicly criticized constitutional revisions proposed by the president — and to be approved or rejected in a Sunday referendum — as “morally unacceptable.”

In a speech televised to this predominantly Catholic country, Chávez branded Urosa Savino as ”a thug,” ‘’stupid,” ”mentally retarded,” ‘’sycophant” and defender of “dark interests.”

But rather than shying away from confrontation with a popular and powerful president, the church fired back.

”Let them jail the cardinal and we’ll see what happens in this country. . . . They are not going to shut us up with actions of that type,” Msgr. Ovidio Pérez Morales, president of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, said this week. The group is made up of the country’s bishops.

It became evident that he’s got his people worried about his president-for-life schemes yesterday in the streets of Caracas (Washington Times’ Martin Arostegui);

Protesters flooded the streets of Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, yesterday to oppose a package of constitutional amendments they fear would make Hugo Chavez president for life and abolish private property.

“Not like this,” shouted tens of thousands of marchers carrying Venezuelan flags and dressed in blue — the chosen color of the opposition — as they streamed along Bolivar Avenue.

On Sunday, Venezuelans will vote on a package of 69 amendments proposed by Mr. Chavez, who says he wants to remain president for the next quarter century, if not longer.

One amendment would get rid of term limits, allowing Mr. Chavez to be re-elected indefinitely, while another could allow his government to seize private property.

The latter amendment says:

“All property will be subject to the contributions, burdens, restrictions and obligations that the law establishes in the spirit of public use or general interest. The expropriation of any kind of good may be declared without restricting the right of state officials during the judicial process.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Jose de Cordoba writes about the basic worries of the average Venezuelans;

Mr. Chávez remains popular with many poor Venezuelans, on whom he has spent billions on programs subsidizing food, education and health. They may like some of the proposed changes — like cutting the workday from eight to six hours and providing pensions for street peddlers and other informal workers — but many of the same supporters are cool toward Mr. Chávez’s plan for turning the country into a socialist regime. “This business which is mine may not end up being mine,” said Luis Peña, who runs a mom-and-pop store in a Caracas barrio and has previously supported Mr. Chávez. “We don’t want more socialism.”

Perhaps Chavez’ biggest misstep in this process was making the referendum about his own future in Venezuela’s government;

“Whoever says he’s for Chávez and votes ‘no’ is a traitor,” he told thousands of followers at one recent rally. He has told supporters he would consider stepping down if the constitutional changes lose.

A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective has photos of the march yesterday here and here. And a video from Julia of The End of Venezuela as I know it. The Devil’s Excrement describes the march from the inside;

It was a long and very tiring day, as I joined the march in favor of voting NO on Sunday’s Constitutional Reform referendum, which took place in Avenida Bolivar, Chavez’ favorite place to hold rallies, but which has been curiously banned for the opposition for exactly five years. This time around, the pressure from the student movement was too much for the Government, and as the students began calling to go to the Presidential Palace, the authorities yielded Avenida Bolivar to today’s rally.

There were five separate marches from various places in Caracas and attendance was simply massive.

Fabiola Sanchez of the Associated Press comments on the size of the crowds;

More than 100,000 people flooded the streets of the capital Thursday to oppose a referendum that would eliminate term limits for President Hugo Chavez and help him establish a socialist state in Venezuela.

Blowing whistles, waving placards and shouting “Not like this!” the marchers carried Venezuelan flags and dressed in blue _ the chosen color of the opposition _ as they streamed along Bolivar Avenue.

“This is a movement by those of us who oppose a change to this country’s way of life, because what (the referendum) aims to do is impose totalitarianism,” said former lawmaker Elias Matta. “There can’t be a communist Venezuela, and that’s why our society is reacting this way.”

No official crowd estimates were available, but opposition politician Leopoldo Lopez said about 160,000 protesters filled the avenue, and thousands more spilled over onto surrounding roads. The rally was among the largest by the opposition in recent years.

Caracas Chronicles’ Francisco has some of the latest polling results;

My sense is that C21 is closer to the mark than Datanalisis here, simply because they make more of an effort to poll the “hidden 25%”: rural voters. So if we can get more than, say, 65% turnout, I think the No will be very hard to beat.

So this one’s in the bag, right? I mean, all the abstentionists are falling into line behind the No vote…CNR, AD, even Marta Colomina, for chrissakes. And turnout was 75% last December, so how could it possibly fall below that this time?

Not so fast. Though it’s gaining in currency, that analysis badly distorts what the turnout challenge is really all about.

Chavez has his cheerleaders, though – like this Badtux fellow who blames Chavez-ism on  George Bush (of course). Oh, and our policy of installing a “white-skinned ruling class” in Venezuela that oppresses the “darkskinned majority”. Buddy, you ought to take a trip to Venezuela sometime – your ignorance runs deep. 

No matter how the vote turns out, I suspect Venezuelans are going to have a real tough day on Monday.

Photo from Fox News Channel

Associated Press reports that students clashed with police in Caracas today;

Venezuelan students in gas masks clashed with National Guard soldiers on Wednesday in protests against President Hugo Chavez’s planned reforms to the country’s constitution.

Soldiers outside the Metropolitan University in Caracas fired tear gas to disperse the demonstrators and students were seen carrying peers as smoke wafted through the air.

Katy at Caracas Chronicles writes that opposition groups have turned 180 degrees and they’re urging everyone to vote;

After a fourteen hour debate (!!), the radical opposition umbrella group Comando Nacional de la Resistencia has just abandoned its militant abstentionism. In a whiplash-inducing change of mind, they are now calling for people to go out and vote No on Sunday.

One of Chavez ex-wives has turned on him, too (from the AP story linked above);

Meanwhile, Chavez took fire from one of his two ex-wives who urged Venezuelans to reject the slate of proposed constitutional changes that would greatly expand executive power.

Urging Venezuelans to vote “no” in Sunday’s referendum on the changes to the nation’s charter, Maria Isabel Rodriguez compared approving the referendum to a “leap into the dark.”

Rodriguez, a journalist, also urged opponents to go to the polls to prevent possible vote-rigging.

“It will be more difficult for fraud to take place if we all vote,” Rodriguez said at a news conference Tuesday. She divorced Chavez in 2004.

The Devil’s Excrement writes that to distract people from the referendum, he’s ratcheting up the crisis with Columbia;

Hugo Chavez broke relationships at least informally today with Colombia, saying that a long as Alvaro Uribe remains as President of that country; he will have no relations with him.

[...]

Remarkably, the popularity of both Presidents was actually boosted by the bickering; as nationalistic sentiments were awaken by the conflict.  Thus, Chavez seemed to be looking for a quick fix to his weakling position in the polls.

While the strategy has very negative consequences long term, Chavez’ immediate needs are more important. Colombia is Venezuela’s second most important trading partner after the United States and provides many basic foodstuffs at a time of widespread shortages with some basic items.

At the same time one has to wonder about whether the initial spike in popularity may be offset Chavez’s stronger words now, particularly among the large voter population of Colombian origin in Venezuela, but we are sure pollsters that are advising the President have taken that into consideration.

A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective has Spanish language links to Chavez’ split with Columbia. 

Some group of crackpots calling themselves Global Research, an offshoot of Venezuelanalysis.com, has uncovered a secret memo from the CIA (ya know those things are laying around everywhere – any crackpot group can find one) detailing “Operation Pliers”;

On a scarier note, an internal CIA memorandum has been obtained by Venezuelan counterintelligence from the US Embassy in Caracas that reveals a very sinister – almost fantastical, were it not true – plan to destabilize Venezuela during the coming days. The plan, titled “OPERATION PLIERS” was authored by CIA Officer Michael Middleton Steere and was addressed to CIA Director General Michael Hayden in Washington.

The memo summarizes the different scenarios that the CIA has been working on in Venezuela for the upcoming referendum vote on December 2nd. The Electoral Scenario, as it’s phrased, confirms that the voting tendencies will not change substantially before Sunday, December 2nd, and that the SI (YES) vote in favor of the constitutional reform has an advantage of about 10-13 points over the NO vote. The CIA estimates abstention around 60% and states in the memo that this voting tendency is irreversible before the elections.

Ohhhh – scary. Like a hardcopy of a CIA memo would even exist in Venezuela, in the US Embassy or otherwise. This ain’t the 50s, guys. SO Chavez is getting so worried about Sunday’s vote, he’s make the referendum about eveything except the Constitution.

Gateway Pundit covers this, Hot Air has more on the CNN plot to assassinate Chavez and Michele Malkin has a round up of today’s Chavez news links. JunkyardBlog uncovers FARC subs. 

Venezuelan half-pint strongman, Hugo Chavez, is slowly losing support for the referendum to rewrite Venezuela’s constitution. Caracas Chronicles has the details;

[Referencing the chart] As you can see, there are two clearly different sets of answers here. When you ask voters in general if they favor or oppose the constitutional reform, you get a clear, consistent majority against it:

But, at the start of the campaign, most people who opposed the reforms were saying they wouldn’t vote. So, until the last few weeks, the “Sí” camp had a majority among likely voters.

From Venezuela Politics;

Luis Ignacio León from the Datanálisis market study group said last Saturday that if the elections were today (actually the day before yesterday), the people would oppose the constitutional reform would obtain 55.4% of the votes against 44.6% of those who favor it. And that only includes the people who said they were going to vote (i.e. absenteeism). 

So Chavez does what pint-sized tyrants do when they start losing. From Venezuela News and Views;

Repression is now a given. Today we were treated to the students of the Simon Bolivar campus in Caracas pushed inside their campus by the Metropolitana police. Since the police cannot enter the campus, they kept throwing canisters of tear gas above the fences and shooting rubber bullets by passing their guns through the chicken wire that circles the campus. I can hardly think of any thing more cowardly risible than what the Caracas police did today, shooting defenseless students from afar while perhaps this very same week end the police failed to stop as many as two dozen murders in Caracas alone. But when did fascism worry about current crime?

Unfortunately today student repression was not an isolated incident. It has been going on steadily for a couple of weeks now, even including torture for some Barquisimeto students. Not to mention the Monte Avila students dragged on the streets of Caracas…

And to rally his troops around him, he decides to alienate his neighbors, too. From A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective;

The Venezuelan president, speaking on television, described Mr. Uribe’s attitude as the equivalent of a “brutal spitting in the face,” and called him a “liar.” Mr. Uribe, the Bush administration’s top ally in South America, responded by accusing Mr. Chávez of legitimizing terrorists and advancing ambitions of “assembling an empire.”

I watched the tape last night on Telemundo of Chavez’ speech and it was much more inciendiery than it reads. You can see the video on YouTube (it’s all in Spanish but Chavez’ arrogance transcends language) as well as Uribe’s response. Chavez’ demeanor and the thuggish way he spoke didn’t translate well into the print media.

Fausta quotes an Investor Business Daily editorial;

In theory, a mediator should persuade two sides to each give up something to achieve a common end. The only one who gave up anything, however, was Uribe, who watched Chavez cavort with terrorists before TV cameras, giving them a legitimacy in Caracas they never had known.

Even worse, Chavez proved to be acting as an agent of the terrorists. Uribe’s sudden cutoff of the mediation effort at a hastily organized press conference last Wednesday suggested disturbing new information.

On Sunday, Chavez confirmed it: “I think Colombia deserves another president, it deserves a better president,” he said.

Hot Air predicts a war between Columbia and Venezuela, but I don’t think so – for two reasons. There is a fairly large US military and law enforcement presence in Columbia. Chavez wouldn’t want to risk making the first move entangling US military in a shooting war and destroying his victim facade.

Attacking Columbia would give Uribe an excuse to start eradicating FARC – FARC killed Uribe’s father twenty years ago and he has no compunction to prevent him from turning the Army lose on them – and Chavez will need FARC for their money and connections for his imperialist plans in the region.

Western Hemisphere Policy Watch recommend we add Venezuela to our State Sponsors of Terrorism list;

WHPW Editors believe that there is ample evidence to, at least, warrant further consideration of the inclusion of Venezuela on the list. It will be a tough call. Are we prepared to stop purchasing Venezuelan oil for a time being?

If we could drill in Alaska and off our coasts we are prepared.

Venezuelanalysis.com estimates, 50,000 chavista students rallied for Chavez’ constitutional “reforms” last week;

Caracas, November 22, 2007 (venezuelanalysis.com) – In a massive demonstration that dwarfed violent opposition student protests two weeks ago against Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s proposed constitutional reforms, more than 50,000 students marched in favor of the reforms in Caracas on Thursday. The rally on the ‘Day of the Students,’ also commemorated 50 years since the student uprising on October 21 1957 that culminated in the downfall of dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez on 23 of January 1958.

Venezuelanalysis.com, however, is given to hyperbole when it comes to Venezuelan support for Chavez (notice the “violent opposition student protests” parroting the Chavez line that anti-chavistas were the cause of the violence). You’d be hardpressed to find much about the anti-chavistas in their columns, most of their columnists are hardcore US socialists.

Chavez used the occasion to deride those who oppose his proposed “reforms” traitors to Venezuela. (Breitbart)

President Hugo Chavez warned his supporters on Friday that anyone voting against his proposed constitutional changes would be a “traitor,” rallying his political base before a referendum that would let him seek unlimited re-election in 2012 and beyond.

Brandishing a little red book listing his desired 69 revisions to Venezuela’s charter, Chavez exhorted his backers to redouble their efforts toward a victorious “yes” vote in the Dec. 2 ballot.

“He who says he supports Chavez but votes ‘no’ is a traitor, a true traitor,” the president told an arena packed with red-clad supporters. “He’s against me, against the revolution and against the people.”

His speech followed the recent high-profile defection of his former Defense Minister Gen. Raul Baduel, a longtime ally who called the president’s proposed reforms a “coup.” Others have also broken with the Chavista movement in recent months, including politicians of the small left-leaning party Podemos

So I guess there’s no room to move around Chavez anymore. That’s why I think this particular rally was organized by Chavez. He seems to be losing ground in polls leading up to the vote. (Reuters)

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has lost his lead eight days before a referendum on ending his term limit, an independent pollster said on Saturday, in a swing in voter sentiment against the Cuba ally.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters oppose Chavez’s proposed raft of constitutional changes to expand his powers, compared with 39 percent in favor, a survey by respected pollster Datanalisis showed.

Just weeks ago, Chavez had a 10-point lead for his proposed changes in the OPEC nation that must be approved in a referendum, the polling company said.

Despite the swing, company head Luis Vicente Leon said he did not rule out a comeback by the popular president.

Chavez has trounced the opposition at the polls on average once a year and can deploy a huge state-backed machinery to get out the vote, Leon said.

Chavez is getting desperate. The Wall Street Journal reports he’s even lost the support of Stalin;

Ivan Stalin González, who prefers to be called just plain Stalin, is president of the student body at the Central University of Venezuela, or UCV, Venezuela’s biggest public university. During the past few weeks, Mr. González and other student leaders here have organized protest marches by tens of thousands of students opposed to a constitutional referendum set for Dec. 2. The proposed changes would dramatically expand Mr. Chávez’s power and allow him to seek perpetual re-election.

“Historically, students have represented the hope and conscience of Venezuela,” says Mr. González, who, unlike his bushy-moustached and sinister-mannered Soviet namesake, is scruffy-bearded and laid-back.

OK, maybe not THE Stalin, but a commie nonetheless;

The 27-year-old, sixth-year law student grew up in a poor household that dreamed of a Communist Venezuela. His father, a print-machine operator, was a high-ranking member of the Bandera Roja, or Red Flag, a hard-line Marxist-Leninist party that maintained a guerrilla force until as recently as the mid-1990s. Its members revered Josef Stalin as well as Albania’s xenophobic Enver Hoxha. As a boy, Mr. González remembers packing off to marches with his sisters, Dolores Engels and Ilyich, named in honor of Vladimir Ilyich Lenin.

As a young man, Mr. González burnished his leftist credentials, joining Marxist youth groups and following his father into the Bandera Roja. He traveled to Socialist youth conferences in Latin America.

Mr. González was still in his teens when Mr. Chávez was voted into office in late 1998. Even then, he says, he was skeptical about Mr. Chávez’s socialist rhetoric, as are many Venezuelan leftists. Mr. Chávez, a lieutenant colonel who had staged an unsuccessful coup attempt in 1992, would be more authoritarian than egalitarian, Mr. González reasoned.

He says his suspicions were confirmed when Mr. Chávez started forming the “Bolivarian Circles” of civilian supporters, some of which turned into armed gangs used to break up opposition gatherings. “Military men belong in the barracks,” he said.

Tomas Sancio (Venezuela Politics) and Daniel (Venezuela News and Views) both predict failure by Chavez in the referendum. Tomas asserts that because of the rising opposition, Chavez sends thugs to do his dirty work – shutting up the media. Daniel, however, does his best to convince Venezuelans to vote;

I do not know whether this serves to convince people to go to vote or not, but it seems to me that it makes a case that by going to vote NO, no matter how much cheating Chavez is already doing, we have a better chance to make our point that the new constitution is inviable. In fact we even have a chance to stop it! If we stay home we know that even with a 20% of Venezuelans Chavez will try to impose it anyway if he has enough spread, which he is sure to get if we stay home.

Besides, if you stay home you relinquish any right you have to say that your vote was stolen. It is that simple.

Francisco of the Caracas Chronicles explains why the chavistas have had such a hard time fighting off this new assault;

Where the old oppo played into the government’s hands by personalizing the debate, ceaselessly “Chaveztizing it”, the students center their message on civil rights. Whereas the old oppo never saw a red rag it didn’t want to charge, the student movement isn’t scared to step away from confrontations that can only play to the government’s advantage.

Gloriously, they’ve left Chávez without a credible target, without a reasonably demonizable enemy. His attempts to lump the kids in with the old guard are vaguely pathetic. It’s just not credible to slam people who hadn’t reached adolescence when Chávez first came to power as “widows of puntofijismo.” There’s palpable confusion as chavistas realize tried and tested polarization techniques have stopped working somehow.

The Devil’s Excrement has a linkfest to worldwide opposition to Chavez – finally. We’ve been sitting here waiting for the world to speak out – and it took an “Old Europe” king to get them to finally grow their own respective pair.

I should have known to check Kate’s blog first while researching, but she’s reprinted the entire WSJ “Stalin” article and another from the Miami Herald to profile the types of people (students) who join the pro-Democracy movement in Venezuela. Gaius at Blue Crab Boulevard and Michele Malkin are hopeful. Redstate writes that Chavez’ economics isn’t working too well either.

Chavez has eight days until the referendum – either way it goes, these are going to be turbulent days before, during and after the vote.

Just to leave you with a chuckle, one of Chavez’ mini-mes, Rafael Correa, President of Equador, had a hissy because TSA gave the little commie a hard time in Miami; (Associated Press)

In his weekly radio address, Correa said he accepted an apology issued Tuesday by U.S. Ambassador to Ecuador Linda Jewell, who said U.S. officials learned of his travel plans only hours before and “didn’t have time to make all the arrangements necessary to receive a head of state.”

Correa received “discourteous treatment” at Miami International Airport, where he’d stopped to change planes Nov. 15 on the way to a summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries summit in Saudi Arabia, the Foreign Ministry said in a letter to the U.S. Embassy in Quito last week. The letter gave no further details of his encounter.

“We accepted (the ambassador’s apology) but personally I’m not going to stop to change planes in the United States until they learn what civilization is,” Correa said.

What a blow to our economy – one less tinpot dictator stopping to buy Starbucks and a Snickers at the airport.

At Babalu Blog, Gusano reports the latest blow to Hugo Chavez’ attempts to spread his own special brand of socialism in the lower hemisphere;

Chavez, who knows how to buy friends and influence people, has offered to use some of “his” , I mean Venezuelan, oil money to buy, I mean help, Chilean socialist president Michelle Bachalet regain her declining popularity by subsidizing the construction of a new transportation program called Transantiago. The implementation of the system has been botched and overbudget, leading to street demonstrations in Santiago.

The Bachalet administration emphatically refused Chavez’s offer to make Chile one of his “client states”:

“We are not used to outsiders telling us what we have to do”

A slightly more diplomatic, yet just as effective ¿por que no te callas?

A slightly more diplomatic, yet just as effective ¿por que no te callas?Hugo, you see is the “brains” behind 21st Century Socialism, which seems to be a very close relative of 20th Century Socialism – stealing.

As far as I can tell, 21st Century Socialism consists of taking your national wealth and packing it in suitcases that are then delivered to other countries to buy , I mean help, foreign politicians who don’t mind prostituting themselves get elected or stay in power.

Yet while Chavez is spreading his money and promises, folks in Venezuela are still missing staples like milk, according to Daniel in Venezuela News and Views;

Yes, milk. There are reports also of people fighting for a pound of powder milk; or of the armed forces battling the “buhoneros” to force them to sell milk at the regulated prices. these ones preferred to spill milk on the side walk. As the shelves of Venezuela are slowly lacking more and more items we learned that through the dismal inefficiency of the Venezuelan public administration 1660 cows died in a ship at Puerto Cabello. In a tale worthy of Garcia Marquez tug boats had to push the boat at sea to throw overboard the putrescent meat. No word form the sharks yet though we are sure that the land sharks will keep whatever commission they pocketed to bring missing meat to Venezuela even if that one will never reach the shelves.

While Katy of the Caracas Chronicles thinks that General Raul Baduel is inciting the Venezuelan military to stand with Venezuelans, and against Chavez, with these words;

“As soldiers we’ve been professionally prepared to administer the State’s legal and legitimate violence, and therefore, we are experts in the topic of violence and what it entails. Our duty, specially during times like these, is to avoid the unleashing of violent processes and come forward as generators of calm and guides so the country can embark on a true path of development and as promoters and maintainers of peace, remembering the peaceful nature of the Venezuelan people which is expressed in Article 13 of the Constitution.”

Reading Kate from A Columbo-Americana’s Perspective, her post entitled “You can’t shut us up either, Chavez“, she writes that Martha Colmenaras’ Spanish language Venezuelan blog has been hacked;

Hartos de ZPorky reports a message from Martha, that her site was hacked immediately after having published a scathing post on Chávez’s behavior toward Don Juan Carlos as well as analyzing the events of 11A and not qualifying them as a golpe de Estado.

BBC writes that Chavez has busied himself threatening Spanish economic interests in Venezuela;

However, Mr Chavez said he did not want a political crisis with Spain following the clash – only that Venezuela’s head of state be respected.

Later, however, he said political, diplomatic and economic ties with Spain were being closely reviewed.

Spain has said it hopes for a swift return to normal diplomatic relations.

Mr Chavez’s interview on state television on Wednesday could be seen as fuelling the row. 

“[The king] disrespected me, and he was laid bare before the world in his arrogance and also his impotence,” Mr Chavez told a news conference on Tuesday, before adding: “We don’t want this to become a political crisis.”

He went on to say that Spanish commercial interests in Venezuela were not indispensable and hinted that they could be affected if the dispute worsened.

“Spain has many investments, private companies here and we don’t want to damage that, but if they are damaged, they are damaged… We don’t need it,” he said.

These are acts of desperation – shutting down internal oppostion and shutting down external opposition from which Venezuela derives some benefit. He funnels money from the people of Venezuela to bribe ther countries for their support, while the people fight over fricken powdered milk. Yeah, great revolution you got going there, Hugo.